Questions · Slots
Short answer
There is no right moment. Online, every spin is independent: hours without a prize do not bring the next one closer. Spanish bar machines must return a minimum over cycles of thousands of games, but you cannot know where in the cycle they are, and the rules only require 70–75% back.
Every spin of an online slot is decided by a random number generator the moment you press the button. There is no queue of prizes waiting, no “hot” or “cold” machine. Two hundred spins without a prize do not make the next one more likely.
The feeling that “it has to come” is one of the most studied mental traps: the gambler’s fallacy. Below you can check it with 200,000 spins of our simulated slot.
Going without a prize does not bring the next one closer
Chance of a prize on the next spin, by how many spins in a row the machine had gone without paying.
200,000 spins on this site’s slot machine
| Spins in a row without a prize | Times | Prize on the next spin |
|---|---|---|
| Just paid | 71,108 | 35.7% |
| 1 to 2 | 75,239 | 35.4% |
| 3 to 5 | 39,282 | 35.5% |
| 6 to 9 | 11,835 | 35.7% |
| 10 to 14 | 2,229 | 35.2% |
| 15 or more | 307 | 34.2% |
However long the machine has gone without paying, the chance of a prize on the next spin is the same. The small differences between rows are random noise, and they change with every batch.Every spin uses fresh, independent random numbers, so P(prize | k spins without one) = P(prize) for every k. The per-row rates are estimates with their own sampling error, larger in rows with fewer cases.
The machines in Spanish bars and arcades (“type B”) work differently. Each region has its own rules, and they usually require the machine to return a minimum share of what is played over a cycle of games: for example, at least 75% in every cycle of 20,000 games, or 70% over 40,000, depending on the rules.
That is where the belief comes from that a machine that has not paid for a while “is about to”. There is a grain of truth in it, but it is useless in practice. You do not know where in the cycle it is, how much people played before you or how much it has already paid out. The cycle is tens of thousands of games. And even meeting its minimum, the machine can keep up to 25% or 30% of everything put into it.
What playing costs, in euros per hour, is explained in What is RTP on a slot machine? And in the simulated slot you can see how near-misses are made.
Spain’s Royal Decree 2110/1998 (Gaming Machines Regulation) requires in article 6 that type B machines return at least 75% over every cycle of 20,000 consecutive games; today it applies directly only in Ceuta and Melilla. The regions have their own rules with similar values, such as 70% over cycles of 40,000 games. The table above uses this site’s slot, with an exact RTP and independent spins, like online slots.
No. Neither online slots nor bar machines change their odds by hour, day or how many people are playing. What changes with the time is how many people play, and so how many prizes you see land.
Not an online slot: the next spin knows nothing of the last one. For a Spanish bar machine, the minimum applies over a whole cycle of thousands of games, so one prize tells you nothing about the next few.
Spins where the big symbol stops just next to the line. They feel close, even though losing by a little and losing by a lot are exactly the same. Machines produce them on purpose, because they encourage people to keep playing.