What are the odds of winning the Spanish Christmas Lottery?
Short answer
The Gordo comes up for 1 in 100,000 décimos. Some prize, for 1 in 7, but it is almost always the refund or €100. Of every €20 a décimo costs, €14 comes back on average, and about €13 after tax.
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How it works
The 22 December draw uses 100,000 numbers, from 00000 to 99999. Each number is printed in many series, and each ticket in a series is split into ten décimos of €20. In 2025, 198 series went on sale: 198 million décimos.
Of everything sold, 70% comes back as prizes. The other 30% never comes back to players: it pays sales commissions and costs, and the rest is profit for the State, on top of the tax on big prizes. That 70% is the figure that matters: of every €20 you pay, €14 comes back on average.
The illusion of small prizes
There are many small prizes: the pedrea, matching hundreds, matching endings, the refund. They make lots of people “win something” almost every year. But the refund only gives you back what you paid, and most of the rest are €100 per décimo. Life-changing prizes are a handful among 100,000 numbers.
The table shows every prize with its exact odds. Below it you can simulate a lifetime of buying décimos every Christmas.
What a décimo is really worth
Prizes per décimo in the Christmas draw, using the 2025 prize programme.
What a €20 décimo can win
Prize
Per décimo
After tax
Chance
El Gordo (first prize)
€400,000
€328,000
1 in 100,000
Second prize
€125,000
€108,000
1 in 100,000
Third prize
€50,000
€48,000
1 in 100,000
Fourth prize
€20,000
€20,000
1 in 50,000
Fifth prize
€6,000
€6,000
1 in 12,500
Number just before or after the Gordo
€2,000
€2,000
1 in 50,000
Just before or after the second
€1,250
€1,250
1 in 50,000
Just before or after the third
€960
€960
1 in 50,000
Pedrea (small prizes)
€100
€100
1 in 56
Same hundred as one of the top four
€100
€100
1 in 202
Same last two digits as one of the top three
€100
€100
1 in 33
Refund (same last digit as the Gordo)
€20
€20
1 in 10
3,000 simulated lives playing like this
You spend in total
€2,400
You get back on average
€1,445
End up ahead
2.0%
Chance of ever winning the Gordo
1 in 834
Of every €20 you pay for a décimo, €14 comes back on average, about €13 after tax. Over 40 years, that is an expected loss of €829. Almost everybody loses: the money for the big prizes comes from the many tickets that win nothing.Expected value per décimo: €14.00 gross, €13.09 net. P(any prize) = 13.8%; P(winning more than €20) = 5.2%. Prizes can stack on one number, so the per-décimo distribution comes from simulating full draws (analysis/navidad/prizes.py). Lives treat each décimo as independent. At least one prize of €1,000 or more: 2.6%.
Playing knowing what you pay
Buying a décimo to share the excitement with family or colleagues is, for many people, part of Christmas. There is nothing wrong with it if you see it for what it is: about €7 per décimo spent on that excitement. The problem starts when people buy décimos thinking this time it will happen, or to make up for previous years.
For other lotteries (lotto, EuroMillions), the lottery simulator works out their odds and plays a whole lifetime in one click.
TechnicalHow it was calculated
Each series pays €14,000,000 in prizes out of €20,000,000 sold. One number can collect several prizes (for example, a matching hundred and the refund), so the distribution of what a décimo pays is not the prize table: we get it by simulating 4,000 full draws and evaluating all 100,000 numbers in each. The expected value comes out exact, €14.00 gross and €13.09 net of the 20% levy above €40,000 per décimo. Code: analysis/navidad/prizes.py. Prize programme: SELAE; tax: Spanish Tax Agency.
Related questions
How much tax do you pay on the Gordo?
Each décimo is taxed separately: the first €40,000 is tax-free and the rest pays 20%. A Gordo décimo (€400,000) leaves €72,000 to the tax office and €328,000 to the winner. The second prize leaves €108,000 net and the third €48,000. Smaller prizes per décimo pay nothing.
Are some numbers or shops luckier?
No. Every number has the same chance. Shops that sell many décimos hand out more prizes because they sell more, not because their tickets win more often: each décimo has the same odds wherever it is bought.
Does it matter if many people play my number?
Not in the Christmas Lottery. Unlike lotto games, the prize is not shared between winners: each décimo collects its own amount. Picking a date or a popular ending changes neither the odds nor the prize.
What is the chance of winning anything?
A décimo wins some prize about 14% of the time, but most of those are the refund: you get your €20 back. Winning more than it cost happens to about 5% of décimos, nearly always €100.
Is it worth buying more décimos?
Each décimo adds the same to your chance and the same to your expected loss: about €7 per décimo after tax. Buying ten multiplies both by ten.